wide receiver routes run stats

Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. Who has the edge? jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. The intermediate SOE leaderboard includes seasons from receivers like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Danny Amendola, Cooper Kupp and Adam Humphries, all of whom are generally regarded as skilled route runners. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_4').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_4', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); using just their YPRR from 2013, we would project Stills at 1.45 [5]Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. 1, even though, statistically, hes the most efficient wide receiver in the league on a per-route basis. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? We're back to the short routes, which means we're again seeing Thomas at the top of the list. Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. I wanted to then break this down not only by the total number of wide receivers that fell into this bucket, but also by the wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes during their rookie campaign. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. Real-time route classification enables us to contextualize the passing game in new ways. What is also encouraging is the three components of RTM generally do not correlate with each other. The teams to sport multiple wide receivers on this list were Atlanta (Jones and Mohamed Sanu), Denver (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), LA Rams (Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp), Miami (Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker), Minnesota (Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs), and Oakland (Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper). All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. RTMs also match up well with existing public benchmarks of receiver performance. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team All-Pro. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. As a result, Stills averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, a pretty unimpressive figure. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. In the tables above, I am referring to hit rate as any wide receiver that achieved WR1 (top-12 in PPR formats) status in a given season in his career. As technology and the growth of the fantasy football community both continue to boom, so too do the metrics and measurables that present themselves for analysis. Year-over-year r-squared of 0.13, n = 53 player season pairs from 2017-2019. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? Stat. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Now, by itself, that doesnt make Targets per Route Run a good metric. We've split up the route tree and looked at all of the advanced receiver metrics available to us -- including target percentage, reception percentage, yards per route run and separation -- to examine who excelled in 2019. or on teams regularly employing multiple WRs on the field. While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. Then we could compare the typical, expected openness for an average receiver to the actual openness assessed by a model looking at tracking data. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. View 2022 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. 4. Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. It also means the entire analysis is conditional on a player actually being targeted. Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. Simply put, no one was more prolific on the go route than Parker. We also hear about touchdowns being random from year to year. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. It helps paint a more complete picture of each receiver's skill set and . Each score is on a 0-99 scale, where 50 is roughly league average. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. Johnson's target ratio is no joking matter. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. Without success in the early part of the sequence, he wouldn't have many opportunities through the remainder of the process. Backs typically run swing routes, check downs and screens, which don't require excellent route-running skills but do rely on yards after catch for success. Looking at raw statistics can be somewhat misleading, but looking at yards per route run for a wide receiver actually shows what a player is doing with the opportunity presented to him. The elements of savvy route running footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed.

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