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Many of the people who live here still farm tobacco, corn, wheat and soybeans, For example, in South Florida, the Burmese python and the Brazilian pepper tree are two freeze-sensitive, nonnative species that have, respectively, decimated mammal populations and transformed native plant communities within Everglades National Park.180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188 In the future, warmer winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the northward movement of these problematic invasive species, which would transform natural systems north of their current distribution. Cartwright, J. M., and W. J. Wolfe, 2016: Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States: A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. According to the article, [b]ecause losses are largest in regions that are already poorer on average, climate change tends to increase preexisting inequality in the United States.11 Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic composition of racial and ethnic groups in the region is important, because these characteristics are associated with health risk factors, disease prevalence, and access to care, which in turn may influence the degree of impact from climate-related threats. ERS, 2018: Rural Poverty & Well-Being: Geography of Poverty. Boucek, R. E., E. E. Gaiser, H. Liu, and J. S. Rehage, 2016: A review of subtropical community resistance and resilience to extreme cold spells. 201512,39). Rising sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity are aspects of climate change that are expected to have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast (Ch. Other examples include Miami Beach, Florida, which has a multiyear, $500-million program to raise public roads and seawalls and improve storm water drainage.92 Norfolk, Virginia, has begun comprehensive planning to fix its high tide flooding issues.93 Biloxi, Mississippi, has put in place several adaptation strategies to lessen the future impacts, including enacting a new building code that requires elevating structures an additional one foot above the base flood elevation.94 Tybee Island, Georgia, has developed a sea level rise adaptation plan with recommendations to flood-proof a 5.5-mile stretch of their sole access causeway, replace two vulnerable bridges, and retrofit their existing storm water infrastructure to improve drainage.95 In response to the 2016 flooding, eight parishes in the Acadiana region of Louisiana came together to collaborate at a watershed level, pooling their federal hazard mitigation grant funding to support projects across the Teche-Vermilion watershed. Camp, and L. Dundon, 2015: Assessing the vulnerability of Tennessee transportation assets to extreme weather. Kirkman, L. K., R. J. Mitchell, R. C. Helton, and M. B. There ishigh confidencethat Southeast coastal cities are already experiencing record numbers of high tide flooding events, andwithout significant adaptation measures,it islikelythey will be impacted by daily high tide flooding. Since then, annual average temperatures have warmed to levels above the 1930s; the decade of the 2010s through 2017 has been warmer than any previous decade (App. Median Household Income of Non-Metro Coastal Counties, 2012-2016. Such changes would negatively impact the regions labor-intensive agricultural industry and compound existing social stresses in rural areas related to limited local community capabilities and associated with rural demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence. WebThe Mesa brand of liquid and solid colorants has a legacy of quality and reliability. 2017.; FTA 2013; City of Fayetteville 2017; City of Charleston 2015; City of New Orleans 2015; Tampa Bay Water 2014; EPA 2015; City of Atlanta 2015, 2017; Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact 201744,45,46,50,91,246,297,298,299). The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 518 pp. 5: Land Changes, KM 1). Traditionally, governments and companies have taken a reactive, risk-based approach to water management, one that focuses on mitigating the economic consequences of floods and droughts but pays little consideration to environmental impacts. Although the exact boundary between the Upper and Lower coastal plains is inexact, it generally falls along EPA, 2015: Case Study: Water and Wastewater Utilities Planning for Climate Change. However, these models do not account for adaptations that may reduce estimated losses.35,64 By the end of the century, mean annual electricity costs are estimated at $3.3 billion each year under RCP8.5 (model range: $2.4 to $4.2 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted) and mean $1.2 billion each year under RCP4.5 (model range $0.9 to $1.9 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted).35, Rural communities tend to be vulnerable due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10,250,283,284,305 Reducing the stress created by such factors can improve resilience.9,284 The availability and accessibility of planning and health services to support coping with climate-related stresses are limited in the rural Southeast.288,289. Noss, R. F., W. J. Platt, B. Over time, the population growth rates of metropolitan counties have increased in comparison with non-metropolitan counties. Berdanier, A. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. Center for Progressive Reform White Paper. As a result, median household income in the rural counties closest to the coast Camden ($60,714), Dare ($54,787) and Carteret ($50,599) are all higher than the state average of $48,256.1. The Gulf Coastal Plains prosper The reasons for this have been the subject of much research, and hypothesized causes include both human and natural influences.13,14,15,16,17 However, since the early 1960s, the Southeast has been warming at a similar rate as the rest of the United States (Ch. Gray, R. Hardy, B. Brost, M. Bresette, J. C. Gorham, S. Connett, B. V. S. Crouchley, M. Dawson, D. Hayes, C. E. Diez, R. P. van Dam, S. Willis, M. Nava, K. M. Hart, M. S. Cherkiss, A. G. Crowder, C. Pollock, Z. Hillis-Starr, F. A. Muoz Tenera, R. Herrera-Pavn, V. Labrada-Martagn, A. Lorences, A. Negrete-Philippe, M. M. Lamont, A. M. Foley, R. Bailey, R. R. Carthy, R. Scarpino, E. McMichael, J. Office of Community Development, 2018: Isle de Jean Charles Resettlement Project. Policy Report 2. North Carolina regions by county. Projections of potential change in the frequency and extent of wildfires depend in part on models of future population growth and human behavior, which are limited, adding to the uncertainty associated with climate and forest modeling. City of Fayetteville, 2017: Arkansans Can Take Steps to Respond to Climate Change. Oswalt, S. N., W. B. Smith, P. D. Miles, and S. A. Pugh, 2014: Forest Resources of the United States, 2012: A technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 update of the RPA Assessment. doi: Dahl, K. A., E. Spanger-Siegfried, A. Caldas, and S. Udvardy, 2017: Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).267,268 Although ramps are found all along the Appalachian mountain range, on Cherokee ancestral lands, they are already in their southernmost range. Global Change Research Program, . The Lower Coastal Plain includes the actual coastal area of the state and the Sea Islands, as well as the Okefenokee Swamp. This is a large industry because the trees tend to grow faster in the Coastal Plains, and the wood is more textured. The participants agreed that the identified issues were important and suggested the inclusion of several other topics, including impacts on coastal and rural areas and people, forests, and agriculture. Analysis of the sensitivity of some manufacturing sectors to climate changes anticipates secondary risks associated with crop and livestock productivity.64,255, Multiple analyses anticipate that energy- or water-intensive industries could face water stress and increased energy costs.8,64,255,256, A large body of evidence addresses the sensitivity of many crops grown in the Southeast to changing climate conditions including increased temperatures, decreased summer rainfall, drought, and change in the timing and duration of chill periods.7,35 Extensive research documents livestock sensitivity to heat stress.7, Multiple lines of evidence indicate that forests are likely to be impacted by changing climate, particularly moisture regimes and potential changes in wildfire activity.191,195,272,274 There is extensive research on heat-related illness and mortality among those living and working in the Southeast. Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. 2: Our Changing Climate. Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties in Eastern North Carolina. In Lenoir County, for example, manufacturing employs 25% of the workforce, whereas statewide this sector only employs 12% of the labor force1, and the countys population declined by 4.4% from 2010 to 2017. go.ncsu.edu/Blue-Economy. Ferrario, F., M. W. Beck, C. D. Storlazzi, F. Micheli, C. C. Shepard, and L. Airoldi, 2014: The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation. Gregg, R. M., W. A. Reynier, A. Reef, R., and C. E. Lovelock, 2015: Regulation of water balance in mangroves. In particular, coastal cities in the Southeast face multiple climate risks, and many planning efforts are underway in these cities. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 144. Scientific Investigations Map 3381. Bentz, B. J., and A. M. Jnsson, 2015: Chapter 13: Modeling bark beetle responses to climate change. EPA 800-Q-15-004. Documenting Uncertainty: This assessment relies on two metrics to communicate the degree of A., L. S. Kutner, and J. S. Adams, Eds., 2000: Precious Heritage: The Status of Biodiversity in the United States. Springer, Berlin,. Williams, J. W., B. N. Shuman, T. Webb, P. J. Bartlein, and P. L. Leduc, 2004: Late-quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: Scaling from taxa to biomes. Percentage Change in Population of Non-Metropolitan Coastal Counties, 2010-2017. before making use of copyrighted material. Although heating costs are expected to decrease as the climate warms in the Southeast, the number of cooling degree days is expected to increase and the length of the cooling season expected to expand, increasing energy demand and exacerbating rural energy poverty (Figure 19.22). Batker, D., I. de la Torre, R. Costanza, P. Swedeen, J. During the 2010s, the number of nights with minimum temperatures greater than 75F was nearly double the long-term average for 19011960 (Figure 19.1), while the length of the freeze-free season was nearly 1.5 weeks greater than any other period in the historical record (Figure 19.2). Census Bureau, 2015: Press release: New Census Bureau Population Estimates Reveal Metro Areas and Counties That Propelled Growth in Florida and the Nation. Ungerer, M. J., M. P. Ayres, and M. J. Lombardero, 1999: Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). A. Knott, and C. M. Oswalt, 2017: Divergence of species responses to climate change. B. Ross Strategic, 2016: International Water and Climate Forum, 2015. WebImportant industrial clusters in the rural coastal region include aerospace and defense, food processing and manufacturing, and energy, among others. Multiple lines of research have shown that global sea levels have increased in the past and are projected to continue to accelerate in the future due to increased global temperature and that higher local sea level rise rates in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have occurred.51,52,53,54,55,56,57,59,61,62, Annual occurrences of high tide flooding have increased, causing several Southeast coastal cities to experience all-time records of occurrences that are posing daily risks.1,52,58,60,61,63,67,68, There is scientific consensus that sea level rise will continue to cause increases in high tide flooding in the Southeast as well as impact the frequency and duration of extreme water level events, causing an increase in the vulnerability of coastal populations and property.1,60,63,67,68, In the future, coastal flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as the frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time.1,2,35,64,65,67,68, Many analyses have determined that extreme rainfall events have increased in the Southeast, and under higher scenarios, the frequency and intensity of these events are projected to increase.19,21,88, Rainfall records have shown that since NCA3, many intense rainfall events (approaching 500-year events) have occurred in the Southeast, with some causing billions of dollars in damage and many deaths.68,82,84, The flood events in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in 2016 and in South Carolina in 2015 provide real examples of how vulnerable inland and coastal communities are to extreme rainfall events.81,85,86, The socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the Southeast is a developing research field.65,71. White, 2017: Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology). Traditionally their economies are resource-based, dependent on harvesting or extracting natural resources with little or no processing. Bjorndal, K. A., A. State of Louisiana, . 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Much of the affected region received between 10 and 26 inches of rain over the 4-day event, breaking many all-time precipitation records (Figure 19.12). 3 Sigma Consultants for Tennessee Department of Transportation, Nashville, TN, 49 pp. See popular questions & answers about Coastal Plains Animal Clinic. Kozlowski, T. T., and S. G. Pallardy, 1997: Growth Control in Woody Plants. Over the past 50 years, the resultant gross damage and lost wages have totaled more than $1.53 billion (dollar year not specified).

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